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The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study

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Vahid, F. ()
Issler, J.V.

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Abstract

Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical features for estimates and forecasts based on vector autoregressive models.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2001/wp2-01.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 2/2001.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2001-2

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Keywords: Reduced rank models; model selection criteria; forecasting; variance decomposition;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 1996. "Common trends and common cycles in regional per capita incomes," Working Papers 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George Athanasopoulos & Osmani T. de C. Guillén & João V. Issler & Farshid Vahid, 2009. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 589, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "The Effect of Data Transformation on Common Cycle, Cointegration and Unit Root Tests: Monte Carlo Results and a Simple Test," Departmental Working Papers 200322, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Neri, Marcelo Cortes & Soares, Wagner Lopes, 2008. "Turismo sustentável e alivio a pobreza: avaliação de impacto," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 689, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  6. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalacio & Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura, 2009. "Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 694, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  7. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005. "Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor without a Utility Function," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutiérrez & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2007. "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Working Papers Series 139, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2001. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 303-323, November. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Nonstationary Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Sectoral Trends and Cycles in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Domenica Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2004. "VARs, Common Factors and the Empirical Validation of Equilibrium Business Cycle Models," Working Papers 258, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Per Capita GDP: The Case of the G7 Countries, 1870–2001," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 280-290, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Heather Anderson & Fashid Vahid, 2005. "Forecasting the Volatility of Australian Stock Returns: Do Common Factors Help?," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2005-451, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03002, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
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