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Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

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  • George Athanasopoulos

    ()

  • Osmani T. de C. Guillén
  • João V. Issler
  • Farshid Vahid

Abstract

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties for a lack of parsimony, as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria with data-dependant penalties. In order to compute the fit of each model, we propose an iterative procedure to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of a VAR model with short-run and long-run restrictions. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank, relative to the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 2/09.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-2

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Keywords: Reduced rank models; model selection criteria; forecasting accuracy;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor, 2012. "A Common-Feature Approach for Testing Present-Value Restrictions with Financial Data," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 728, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Alain Hecq & João Victor Issler & Diogo Saraiva, 2013. "Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions," Working Papers Series 330, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2013. "Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 744, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Degui Li & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Estimating Smooth Structural Change in Cointegration Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1910, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Zhipeng Liao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2012. "Automated Estimation of Vector Error Correction Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1873, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo, 2013. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 742, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  7. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. Hecq Alain & Laurent Sébastien & Palm Franz, 2011. "Common intraday periodicity," Research Memorandum 010, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  9. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessôa, Samuel & Santos, Marcelo dos, 2014. "Globalization and the Industrial Revolution," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 753, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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