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The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study

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  • Vahid, Farshid
  • Issler, Joao Victor

Abstract

Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical features for estimates and forecasts based on vector autoregressive models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 109 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 341-363

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:109:y:2002:i:2:p:341-363

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  13. Robert F. Engle & João Victor Issler, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(2), pages 149-176, April.
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  17. Vahid, F. & Issler, J.V., 2001. "The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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