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Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models

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Author Info
Paruolo Paolo () (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy)

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Abstract

This paper presents cointegration tests in the integration indices (II) in cointegrated (CI) vector autoregressive processes (VAR). The statistical analysis is performed under the assumption that some variables are weakly exogenous with respect to the (multi-)cointegration parameters, a condition that corresponds to no integral and proportional feedback in the marginal system (NF). The specification of the deterministic components is chosen so as to allow for a linear trend in all possible directions.The asymptotic distribution is derived both under correct specification of the weak exogeneity assumptions and under mis-specification. Tables of limit distributions are obtained by simulation. It is found that some types of mis-specification modify the asymptotic distributions of the tests considerably. However, the asymptotics are unaffected by misspecification provided the adjustment coefficients in the conditional system are of full rank.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Insubria in its series Economics and Quantitative Methods with number qf0216.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ins:quaeco:qf0216

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Keywords: cointegration rank test common trends VAR I(2) 2SI2 conditional systems

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  1. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter KUGLER & Klaus NEUSSER, 1990. "International Real Interest Rate Equalization: A Multivariate Time Series Approach," Vienna Economics Papers vie9003, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
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  3. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  4. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, May. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  9. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-91, May-June. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2001. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Omtzigt Pieter & Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Impact factors," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0203, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Omtzigt Pieter & Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Impact factors," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0203, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
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