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Impulsions dominantes et analyse des fluctuations de l’économie française

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  • Bec, Frédérique

    (CREST-ENSAE)

Abstract

Following Brunner and Meltzer [1978], the dominant impulses hypothesis attributes the business cycles to the unanticipated component of a set of explicit home and foreign impulses. While maintaining this frame, our study departs from this approach by using a more sophisticated statistical methodology recently developped in the field of time series econometrics. The analysis of a VAR model including real GDP, its price deflator, a monetary aggregate, an indicator of fiscal policy, the import price index and the foreign demand, supports an explanation of the French economic fluctuations in terms of multiple impulses in the short run. More precisely, it underlines the necessity of taking foreign impulses into account, the foreign demand shock dominating the foreign price impulse. L’approche des impulsions dominantes, dans la tradition de Brunner et Meltzer [1978], considère que les fluctuations économiques conjoncturelles sont dues à la composante non anticipée d’un ensemble d’impulsions explicites domestiques et étrangères. Bien que s’inscrivant dans cette approche, notre étude se propose de la reformuler dans un cadre statistique plus performant en utilisant les développements récents de l’économétrie des séries temporelles. L’analyse d’un modèle VAR incluant le PIB en volume, son déflateur, un agrégat monétaire, un indicateur des actions gouvernementales en matière de politique budgétaire, le prix des importations et la demande étrangère plaide en faveur d’une explication en termes d’impulsions multiples des fluctuations de l’économie française à court terme, et souligne l’importance de la prise en compte des chocs étrangers, et plus particulièrement des chocs de demande étrangère.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 70 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
Pages: 5-26

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:70:y:1994:i:1:p:5-26

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  1. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Kunst, Robert & Neusser, Klaus, 1990. "Cointegration in a Macroeconomic System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 351-65, Oct.-Dec..
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Robert P. Hagemann & Nicola Sartor, 1990. "Indicators of Fiscal Policy: A Re-Examination," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 78, OECD Publishing.
  5. Pierre PERRON & John Y. CAMPBELL, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas multidimensionnel," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 27, pages 1-50.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Barro, Robert J. & Fischer, Stanley, 1976. "Recent developments in monetary theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 133-167, April.
  8. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1988. "Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-374.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  11. Fratianni, Michele, 1978. "Inflation and unanticipated changes in output in Italy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 141-180, January.
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