A VAR Analysis of US and Japanese Effects on Malaysian Aggregate and Sectoral Output
AbstractThe paper analyzes the relative influences of US, Japanese and domestic disturbances on domestic fluctuations for the case of Malaysia. Utilizing VAR framework and quarterly data from 1978 to 1999, we focus on their influences on aggregate fluctuations as well as on sectoral cycles. Our results suggest that aggregate and sectoral output fluctuations originate principally from domestic sources. However, the importance of the US and Japanese business cycles can not be ignored as they exert quite substantial influences on domestic output variability. Comparatively, the Japanese influences seem to be larger. However, from sectoral perspectives, there are disparities in the responses of sectoral output to US and Japanese disturbances. While some sectors are affected more by disturbances in Japan, other sectors seem to be more vulnerable to the US shocks. From a policy point of view, policy designs that ensure predictable domestic macroeconomic environment are most important and they need to be aligned more to those of Japan for curbing output variability. Which sectors should be given focus, however, depends crucially on the sources of disturbances.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .
Volume (Year): 1 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- O56 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Oceania
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