Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models
AbstractForecasts from seasonal cointegration models are compared with those from a standard cointegration model based on first differences and seasonal dummies. The effects of restricting or not restricting seasonal intercepts in the seasonal cointegration models are examined as well as the recently proposed specification and estimation procedure for the annual frequency by Johansen and Schaumburg (1999). The data generating process used in the Monte Carlo simulation is based on an empirical six-dimensional macroeconomic data set. Results show that the seasonal cointegration model improves forecasting accuracy, compared with the standard cointegration model, even in small samples and if short forecast horizons are considered. Furthermore, the specification suggested by Johansen and Schaumburg seems to work better than the original model presented by Lee (1992). An empirical forecasting example confirm most of the results found in the Monte Carlo study.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 336.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 12 Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting.
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Seasonal cointegration; Monte Carlo; Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Lof, Marten & Lyhagen, Johan, 2002. "Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-44.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2000-01-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2000-01-24 (Econometric Time Series)
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