Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction
AbstractIn a panel of West African countries, we investigate whether data on immigrant remittance flows can be used to improve on predictive accuracy of aggregate demand in a systematic way. The results of the prediction experiments are compared to traditional significance tests of asymmetric error correction and of the exogenous remittance variable. We find that there is a considerable discrepancy between statistical hypothesis testing and the results from the forecast comparison. In particular, while remittances yield significant coefficients for at least some of the accounts aggregates, they do not contribute to improved forecasting accuracy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 168.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Postal: Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna, Austria
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005.
"Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
- Samir Jahjah & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development," IMF Working Papers 03/189, International Monetary Fund.
- Kunst, Robert & Neusser, Klaus, 1990. "Cointegration in a Macroeconomic System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 351-65, Oct.-Dec..
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2004. "Modeling National Accounts Sub-Aggregates. An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction," Economics Series 149, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doris Szoncsitz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.