Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction
AbstractIn a panel of West African countries, we investigate whether data on immigrant remittance flows can be used to improve on predictive accuracy of aggregate demand in a systematic way. The results of the prediction experiments are compared to traditional significance tests of asymmetric error correction and of the exogenous remittance variable. We find that there is a considerable discrepancy between statistical hypothesis testing and the results from the forecast comparison. In particular, while remittances yield significant coefficients for at least some of the accounts aggregates, they do not contribute to improved forecasting accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 168.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
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