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Real Interest Rate Stationarity and Per Capita Consumption Growth Rate

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Author Info
Claude Lopez
Javier Reyes ()

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Abstract

Many economic theories connecting the real interest rate and the per-capita consumption growth rate require that both rates evolve together over time. This paper investigates whether these rates present similar stationary behavior for the seven most industrialized countries over the 1957-2005 period. The analysis relies on the unit root tests developed by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) and Lopez (2006) to look for stationary or regime-wise stationary behavior, respectively. Furthermore, the ?nal break selection uses Bai and Perron?s (2003) method. The results show for all the countries considered that both rates are either stationary or regime-wise stationary with a same number of breaks and, mostly, corresponding dates. The results hold whether the rates are calculated annually or quarterly.

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File URL: http://www.artsci.uc.edu/collegedepts/economics/research/docs/Wppdf/2005-02.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics in its series University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series with number 2005-02.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision: Feb 2007
Handle: RePEc:cin:ucecwp:2005-02

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  1. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-70, October.
  3. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  4. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin B, 2000. "Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 320-34, August.
  6. Neusser, Klaus, 1991. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 3-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ferson, Wayne E. & Merrick, John Jr., 1987. "Non-stationarity and stage-of-the-business-cycle effects in consumption-based asset pricing relations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 127-146, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
  9. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.


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