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Stationary properties of the real interest rate and the per-capita consumption growth rate: empirical evidence for theoretical arguments

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  • Claude Lopez
  • Javier Reyes

Abstract

Many economic theories connecting the real interest rate and the per-capita consumption growth rate require that both rates evolve together over time. This article investigates whether these rates present similar stationary behaviour for the seven most industrialized countries over the 1957-2005 period. The analysis relies on the unit root tests developed by Elliott et al. (1996) and Lopez (2006) to look for stationary or regime-wise stationary behaviour, respectively. Furthermore, the final break selection uses Bai and Perron's (2003) method. The results show, for all the countries considered, that both rates are either stationary or regime-wise stationary with the same number of breaks and, mostly, with corresponding dates. The results hold whether the rates are calculated annually or quarterly.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1643-1651

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:13:p:1643-1651

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References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  2. Claude Lopez, 2009. "Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 238-243.
  3. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
  4. Claude Lopez, 2008. "GLS-detrending and Regime-wise Stationarity Testing in Small Samples," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2008-01, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics, revised 2008.
  5. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  6. Klaus NEUSSER, 1990. "Testing the Long-Run Implications of the Neoclassical Growth Model," Vienna Economics Papers vie9002, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  7. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  8. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  9. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
  10. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin B, 2000. "Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 320-34, August.
  11. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177.
  12. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-70, October.
  13. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  14. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
  15. Claude Lopez, 2005. "Improved Unit Root Tests with Changes in the Intercept," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2005-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Christian Lambelet & Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 604, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  2. Jan Willem van den End, 2011. "Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates," DNB Working Papers 284, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2011. "Mean-reversion in international real interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1959-1966, July.

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