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Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications

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  • Christopher J. Neely
  • David E. Rapach

Abstract

The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. We selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods of time where the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. We discuss the implications of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-018.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-018

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Keywords: Interest rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 306-323.
  2. Jan Willem van den End, 2011. "Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates," DNB Working Papers 284, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Yoon, Gawon, 2009. "Is high real interest rate persistence an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 359-363, March.
  4. Gerakos, Joseph & Kovrijnykh, Andrei, 2013. "Performance shocks and misreporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 57-72.
  5. Frederick H Wallace, 2012. "Testing for a nonlinear Fisher relationship," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 823-829.
  6. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian K. Tipoy & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2012. "Real Interest Rate Persistence in South Africa: Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 17/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  7. Robinson Kruse & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Antonio E. Noriega, 2013. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2013-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  8. McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2010. "Persistence and time-varying coefficients," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 85-88, July.
  9. Alfred A. Haug, 2013. "On Real Interest Rate Persistence: The Role of Breaks," Working Papers 1303, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2013.
  10. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Demiralp, Selva, 2013. "How did the Financial Crisis affect the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?," Working Papers 2072/211885, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  11. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "Sources of Current Account Fluctuations in Industrialized Countries," Studies in Economics 0910, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  12. Beyer, Andreas & Haug, Alfred A. & Dewald, William G., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.

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