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The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model

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Marco Espinosa-Vega
Steven Russell

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Abstract

In this paper we integrate Diamond's (1965) model of neoclassical production and capital with Wallace's (1984) model of monetary policy in order to study the real effects of two types of monetary policy actions: open market operations and changes in reserve requirements. We show that a permanent easing of open market or reserve policy can produce permanent increases in both the inflation rate and the level (but not the growth rate) of output. We also describe conditions under which the effects of these policies on real interest rates and output can be large relative to their effects on the rate of inflation. When we compare the effects of the two types of policies we find that open market operations are the policy tool that minimizes the change in the inflation rate necessary to achieve a given change in the level of output.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 98-6.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:98-6

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Keywords: Keynesian economics ; Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael R. Darby, 1984. "Some pleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 1047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bhattacharya, Joydeep, et al, 1997. "Monetary, Fiscal, and Reserve Requirement Policy in a Simple Monetary Growth Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 321-50, May.
  6. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce D, 1996. " Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 309-32, September.
  7. Bruce D. Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win. [Downloadable!]
  8. Romer, David, 1986. "A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 663-85, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Miller, Preston J. & Todd, Richard M., 1995. "Real effects of monetary policy in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 125-153. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bullard, James & Russell, Steven, 1999. "An empirically plausible model of low real interest rates and unbacked government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 477-508, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  15. James Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 1997-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-74, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1996. "Long-term evidence on the Tobin and Fisher effects: a new approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 566, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Thomas M. Supel & Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Should currency be priced like cars?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
  20. John H. Boyd & Ross Levine & Bruce D. Smith, 1997. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Papers 573, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Marco Espinosa & Steven Russell, 1998. "Can a Policy of Higher Inflation Reduce Real Interests in the Long Run?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 92-103, February.
  25. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some of the choices for monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win. [Downloadable!]
  27. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Preston J. Miller & Thomas J. Sargent, 1984. "A reply to Darby," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 2001. "Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic," Working Paper 2001-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Leopold von Thadden, 2004. "Active monetary policy, passive fiscal policy and the value of pure debt: some further monetarist arithmetic," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 108, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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