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Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications

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Author Info
Christopher J. Neely
David E. Rapach

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Abstract

The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. The authors selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods when the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. The authors discuss the implications of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages: 609-642
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2008:i:nov:p:609-642:n:v.90no.6

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Keywords: Interest rates;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Beyer & Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2009. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration and the Fisher Effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "Sources of Current Account Fluctuations in Industrialized Countries," Studies in Economics 0910, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
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