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History and theory of the NAIRU: a critical review

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Author Info
Marco A. Espinosa-Vega
Steven Russell

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Abstract

Economic commentators regularly urge the Fed to use the level of unemployment or the rate of change in wages as leading indicators of inflation and as guides to whether they should ease or tighten monetary policy. The logic behind this approach is based on modern (post-1970) Keynesian macroeconomics and, more specifically, on the Phillips curve and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). This article attempts to provide some basic information about this NAIRU theory of the causes of inflation and the role of monetary policy. After describing the historical development of the NAIRU theory, the discussion raises some practical questions about the validity of the theory and its usefulness as the basis for policy advice. Perhaps the most important question involves the difficulty of distinguishing policy-induced changes in nominal wages that reflect future changes in the price level from changes in relative wages associated with real changes in the economy. The authors also describe recent developments in neoclassical theory that indicate that business cycle fluctuations in employment and output may be caused primarily by real forces-a situation that, if true, increases the danger that monetary policy based on the NAIRU may interfere with the proper functioning of the price system.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Q 2 ()
Pages: 4-25
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedaer:y:1997:i:q2:p:4-25:n:v.82no.2

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Keywords: Economics;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bruce D. Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 19-90. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. James Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 1997-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Roberto Chang, 1997. "Is low unemployment inflationary?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q I, pages 4-13. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mark A. Wynne, 1995. "Sticky prices: what is the evidence?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  15. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1975-1), pages 141-166. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Marco Espinosa & Steven Russell, 1998. "Can a Policy of Higher Inflation Reduce Real Interests in the Long Run?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 92-103, February.
  18. Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some of the choices for monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win. [Downloadable!]
  19. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Guzman, M. & Smith, B.D., 2002. "Some Even More Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Staff General Research Papers 5084, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-42. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lynn Elaine Browne, 1999. "U.S economic performance: good fortune, bubble, or new era?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-20. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 16-29. [Downloadable!]
  4. Claar, Victor V, 2002. "Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," MPRA Paper 14257, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem — Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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