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History and theory of the NAIRU: a critical review

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Author Info
Marco A. Espinosa-Vega
Steven Russell

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Abstract

Economic commentators regularly urge the Fed to use the level of unemployment or the rate of change in wages as leading indicators of inflation and as guides to whether they should ease or tighten monetary policy. The logic behind this approach is based on modern (post-1970) Keynesian macroeconomics and, more specifically, on the Phillips curve and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). This article attempts to provide some basic information about this NAIRU theory of the causes of inflation and the role of monetary policy. After describing the historical development of the NAIRU theory, the discussion raises some practical questions about the validity of the theory and its usefulness as the basis for policy advice. Perhaps the most important question involves the difficulty of distinguishing policy-induced changes in nominal wages that reflect future changes in the price level from changes in relative wages associated with real changes in the economy. The authors also describe recent developments in neoclassical theory that indicate that business cycle fluctuations in employment and output may be caused primarily by real forces-a situation that, if true, increases the danger that monetary policy based on the NAIRU may interfere with the proper functioning of the price system.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Q 2 ()
Pages: 4-25
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedaer:y:1997:i:q2:p:4-25:n:v.82no.2

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Keywords: Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 19-90. [Downloadable!]
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  9. James Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 1997-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lynn Elaine Browne, 1999. "U.S economic performance: good fortune, bubble, or new era?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-20. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Results For Luxembourg," BCL working papers cahier_etude_11, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem — Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-42. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 16-29. [Downloadable!]
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