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How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?

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Author Info
James Bullard
Steven Russell

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Abstract

We study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life cycle model with growth, costly financial intermediation, and taxes on nominal quantities. We find a stationary equilibrium of the model matches a wide variety of facts about the postwar U.S. economy. We then calculate that the inflation policy of the monetary authority has welfare consequences for agents that are an order of magnitude larger than existing estimates in the literature. These effects are large even at very low inflation rates. The bulk of the welfare cost of inflation can be attributed to the fact that inflation increases the effective tax rate on capital income.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-012.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-012

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Keywords: Economic conditions - United States ; Inflation (Finance);

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. David Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1991. "Inflation, personal taxes, and real output: a dynamic analysis," Working Paper 9102, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
  6. Kydland, Finn E, 1991. "Inflation, Personal Taxes, and Real Output: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 575-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 5469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Juan Angel Garcia, 2003. "Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation," Working Paper Series 278, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marco Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 2001. "Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic," Working Paper 2001-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  3. William Poole, 1999. "Is inflation too low?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-10. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Orazio Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tuillo Jappelli, 1998. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," NBER Working Papers 6593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Apostolos Serletis & Kazem Yavari, 2005. "The welfare cost of inflation in Italy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 165-168, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Clark A. Burdick, 1997. "A transitional analysis of the welfare cost of inflation," Working Paper 97-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  7. James Bullard & Steve Russell, 1998. "Monetary steady states in a low real interest rate economy," Working Papers 1994-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marco Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs of inflation and policy credibility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 37-50. [Downloadable!]
  10. Donal Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and Markov regime switching heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 125, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1997. "History and theory of the NAIRU: a critical review," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 4-25. [Downloadable!]
  12. James McAndrews & William Roberds, 1999. "A general equilibrium analysis of check float," Staff Reports 84, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Joseph H. Haslag & Eric R. Young, 1998. "Money Creation, Reserve Requirements, and Seigniorage," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 677-698, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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