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Rational expectations business cycle models: a survey

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  • Michael Dotsey
  • Robert G. King
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    Abstract

    Development of rational expectations models of the business cycle has been the central issue in macroeconomics over the last 15 years. The postulate that expectations are rational imposes considerable discipline on business cycle analysis. In this essay we review the current literature on rational expectations models of business cycles with specific attention focused on the extent to which the rational expectations perspective has generated a new understanding of economic fluctuations.

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    File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_review/1988/pdf/er740201.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1988)
    Issue (Month): Mar ()
    Pages: 3-15

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1988:i:mar:p:3-15:n:v.74no.2

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    Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Business cycles ; Rational expectations (Economic theory);

    References

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    1. Marvin Goodfriend, 1986. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 86-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
    3. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    4. Robert J. Barro & Zvi Hercowitz, 1979. "Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth," NBER Working Papers 0329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. King, Robert G., 1981. "Monetary information and monetary neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 195-206.
    6. King, Robert G. & Trehan, Bharat, 1984. "Money : Endogeneity and neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 385-393, November.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1980. "A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1393-1417, September.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    9. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
    10. Rosen, Sherwin, 1985. "Implicit Contracts: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1144-75, September.
    11. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    12. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1979. "A monetary policy ineffectiveness result in a model with a predetermined price level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-4.
    14. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
    15. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1983. "The response of real wages to unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 73-88.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    18. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    19. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    20. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1987. "Wage stickiness and the non-neutrality of money : A cross-industry analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-50, July.
    21. McCallum, Bennett T, 1978. "Price Level Adjustments and the Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 418-36, November.
    22. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
    23. McCallum, Bennett T, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 716-46, November.
    24. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Joachim Scheide, 1989. "On Real and Monetary Causes for Business Cycles in West Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(IV), pages 583-595, December.
    2. Visser, H., 1989. "Rational expectations and new classical macroeconomics," Serie Research Memoranda 0008, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

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