Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth
AbstractAn important "empirical regularity" is the strong positive effect of money shocks on output and employment. One strand of business cycle theory relates this finding to temporary confusions between absolute and relative price changes. These models predict positive output effects of unperceived monetary movements, but the quantitative importance of unperceived shifts in nominal aggregates is subject to question. Another strand of theory, based on long-term nominal contracts and analogous price-setting institutions, generates output effects from unanticipated, but not necessarily contemporaneously unperceived, money shocks. However, the real effects of unpredicted, but contemporaneously understood, monetary changes are not obviously consistent with efficient institutional arrangements. The present paper provides some empirical evidence on the two types of theories by analyzing the output effects associated with revisions in the money stock data, where the revisions are interpreted as components of unperceived monetary movements. The revisions turn out to have no significant explanatory power for output. Previous findings that innovations from an estimated money growth equation have a significant output effect remain intact when the revisions are included as separate explanatory variables. Overall, the study provides a small amount of evidence against the special role of unperceived, as opposed to unanticipated, money movements as a determinant of business fluctuations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 6 (1980)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- Robert J. Barro & Zvi Hercowitz, 1979. "Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth," NBER Working Papers 0329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter R. Hartley & Carl E. Walsh, 1986.
"Inside money and monetary neutrality,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
86-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Charles Freedman, 1982. "The effect of U.S. policies on foreign countries: the case of Canada," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 97-129.
- Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King, 1988. "Rational expectations business cycle models: a survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 3-15.
- Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982.
"Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
- John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1981. "Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data," NBER Working Papers 0558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2008.
"Monetary policy news and exchange rate responses: Do only surprises matter?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1076-1086, June.
- Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, . "Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses: Do Only Surprises Matter?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-14, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1990.
"A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics,"
NBER Working Papers
3256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1984.
"Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
1278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dr.Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2004. "Money And Output Interraction In Nigeria," Macroeconomics 0405012, EconWPA.
- repec:fth:prinin:200 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jeremy Greenwood, 2005. "Modern Business Cycle Analysis," RCER Working Papers 520, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1986. "Money and the Open Economy Business Cycle: A Flexible Price Model," NBER Working Papers 1967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Rao Aiyagari, 1990. "Deflating the case for zero inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11.
- Michael Woodford, 2001.
"Monetary Policy in the Information Economy,"
NBER Working Papers
8674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
- John B. Taylor, 1982.
"The role of expectations in the choice of monetary policy,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 47-95.
- John B. Taylor, 1982. "The Role of Expectations in the Choice of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1980. "Monetary Information and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.