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Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data

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  • John F. Boschen
  • Herschel I. Grossman

Abstract

This paper uses contemporaneous monetary data to carry out econometric tests of the "equilibrium" approach to modeling the relation between monetary disturbances and macroeconomic fluctuations. The theoretical analysis introduces into an equilibrium macroeconomic model the availability of preliminary data on current monetary aggregates and the process of accumulation of revised monetary data. The econometric analysis tests two hypotheses derived from this extended model. One hypothesis concerns the neutrality of perceived monetary policy. The other hypothesis concerns the nonneutrality of errors in preliminary monetary data. The econometric results imply rejection of both of these hypotheses. These tests provide strong evidence against the reality of the equilibrium approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0558.

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Date of creation: Oct 1981
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Publication status: published as Boschen, John F. and Grossman, Herschel I. "Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10 (1982), pp. 309-333.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0558

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  1. King, Robert G., 1981. "Monetary information and monetary neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 195-206.
  2. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  4. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  6. John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1980. "Monetary Information and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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