The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation
AbstractThis paper is an empirical exploration of real interest rate movements in the United States over the last fifty years. It focuses on several questions which have repeatedly arisen in the literature. How valid is the hypothesis associated with Fama (1975) that the real rate of interest is constant? Does the real rate decline with increases in expected inflation? Are cyclical movements in real variables correlated with real rate movements? How reliable is the Fishei (1930) effect where nominal interest rates reflect changes in expected inflation? What kind of variation in real interest rates have we experienced in the last fifty years? Have real rates turned negative in the 1970s, as is commonly believed, and were they unusually high in the initial stages of the Great Depression? In pursuing these questions, this paper first outlines in section II the methodology and theory used in the empirical analysis. The empirical results then follow in section III, and a final section contains the concluding remarks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0622.
Date of creation: Jan 1981
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Mishkin, Frederic S. "The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation." The Costs and Consequences of Inflation, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 15, (Autumn 1981), pp. 151-200 and 21 3-218.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.