Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis
AbstractThe authors develop a method of measuring ex ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds. Employing this method and newly available data, they directly test the Fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations. The authors find a negative correlation between ex ante real interest rates and expected inflation. This contradicts the Fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of Robert A. Mundell and James Tobin, Michael R. Darby and Martin Feldstein, and Rene Stulz. The authors also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty. Copyright 1996 by American Finance Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.
Volume (Year): 51 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Other versions of this item:
- Shmuel Kandel & Aharon R. Ofer & Oded Sarig, . "Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Shmuel Kandel & Aharon R. Ofer & Sarig & Oded, . "Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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- Reschreiter, Andreas, 2004. "Conditional funding costs of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1299-1318, June.
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- Thomas C. Melzer, 1997. "To conclude: keep inflation low and, in principle, eliminate it," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-7.
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