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A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect

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  • DIMITRIS K. CHRISTOPOULOS
  • MIGUEL A. LEÃN-LEDESMA

Abstract

We argue that the empirical failure of the Fisher effect found in the literature may be due to the existence of non-linearities in the long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation. We present evidence that, for the U.S. during the 1960-2004 period, the Fisher relation presents important non-linearities. We model the long-run non-linear relationship and find that an ESTR model for the pre-Volcker era and an LSTR model for the post-Volcker era are able to control for non-linearities and constitute long-run co-integration vectors. Monte Carlo evidence produces support for the hypothesis that non-linearities may also be responsible for the less than proportional coefficients of inflation usually found in the linear specifications. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (03)
Pages: 543-559

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:2-3:p:543-559

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Kisswani, Khalid/ M. & Nusair, Salah/ A., 2011. "Non-linear convergence in Asian interest rates and inflation rates," MPRA Paper 34179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hwa-taek Lee & Venus khim-sen Liew & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Is there a nonlinear long-run relation in the U.S. interest rate and inflation?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 104-112.
  3. Kisswani, Khalid /M. & Nusair, Salah /A., 2012. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," MPRA Paper 36586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2010. "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 91-103, February.
  5. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Sachsida, Adolfo & Wang, Le, 2012. "Do central banks affect Tobin's q?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-10.
  6. Awokuse, Titus O. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 184-190, January.
  7. Pelin Oge Guney & Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2012. "Time Series Behaviour of the Real Interest Rates in Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20125, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  8. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Arnwine, Neil & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "What Fisher knew about his relation, we sometimes forget," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 193-195, December.
  10. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
  11. Frederick H Wallace, 2012. "Testing for a nonlinear Fisher relationship," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 823-829.
  12. Lee, Cheng-Feng & Tsong, Ching-Chuan, 2009. "Bootstrapping covariate stationarity tests for inflation rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1443-1448, November.
  13. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  14. Antonio Ribba, 2011. "On some neglected implications of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, April.

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