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Testing the Fisher Effect in the Presence of Structural Change: A Case Study of the UK,1961-2001

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Abstract

In this paper we provide an empirical test of the Fisher effect using cointegration techniques, where the existence of instabilities in the cointegrating or long-run relationships is explicitly tested. The analysis was applied to the UK, a country that has been subject to potentially stronger regime shifts than other countries over the last years, for the period 1961-2001. To this end, we apply some recent econometric techniques aimed to detect eventual structural changes, allowing the instability to occur at a unknown date. We supply a broad battery of tests in order to illustrate recent developments in the field, which might also be useful to applied econometricians.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2003_22.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2003_22

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Keywords: Interest rate; Fisher effect; Structural breaks; Cointegration.;

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  1. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
  2. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 305-380.
  3. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  4. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Leãn-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, 03.
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  7. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
  8. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan & Vicente Esteve, 2005. "Is the Fisher effect non-linear? some evidence for Spain, 1963-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 849-854.
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  15. Oscar Bajo & Vicente Esteve, 1998. "¿Existe un efecto Fisher en el largo plazo? Evidencia para la economía española, 1962-1996," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9810, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  16. William J. Crowder, 1997. "The Long-Run Fisher Relation in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1124-42, November.
  17. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Does nonlinearity help resolve the Fisher effect puzzle?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 823-828.
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Cited by:
  1. Awomuse, Bernard O. & Alimi, Santos R., 2012. "The Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: New Evidence and Implication for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 49684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. H.a. Mitchell-innes & M.j. Aziakpono & A.p. Faure, 2007. "Inflation Targeting And The Fisher Effect In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 693-707, December.
  3. Muse, Bernard & Alimi, R. Santos, 2012. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 44987, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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