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Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation

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Author Info
Markku Lanne (School of Business and Economics, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland)

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Abstract

According to several empirical studies US inflation and nominal interest rates as well as the real interest rate can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is incongruent with theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a new nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1953 : II-2004 : IV) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month Treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one movement of the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long run and, hence, stationarity of the real interest rate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.908
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2006-v21.8/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1157-1168
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:8:p:1157-1168

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1998. "Hypothesis testing with a restricted parameter space," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-199, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. C. S. Wong & W. K. Li, 2000. "On a mixture autoregressive model," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-115. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 96-125.
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  4. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  5. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1998. "Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to US unemployment," Econometric Institute Report EI 9841 Revision_Date: 20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Graham Elliott, 1995. "Tests for the Correct Specification of Cointegrating Vectors and the Error Correction Model," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-42, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  11. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Markku Lanne, 2001. "Near unit root and the relationship between inflation and interest rates: A reexamination of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 357-366. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bierens, Herman J, 2000. "Nonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis, with an Application to Interest and Inflation in the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 323-37, July.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004. "Normalization in econometrics," Working Paper 2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kauko, Karlo, 2002. "Links between securities settlement systems: An oligopoly theoretic approach," Research Discussion Papers 27/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004. "The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland," Macroeconomics 0402007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Kruse, Robinson, 2007. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-381, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hannu Koskinen, 2004. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 63-72, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tom Pak-wing Fong & Chun-shan Wong, 2008. "Stress Testing Banks' Credit Risk Using Mixture Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 0813, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Granlund , Peik, 2002. "Bank exit legislation in US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Research Discussion Papers 25/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peik Granlund, 2004. "Bank exit legislation in US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Finance 0405015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Karlo Kauko, 2004. "Links between securities settlement systems: An oligopoly theoretic approach," Industrial Organization 0405003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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