Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes
AbstractA new kind of mixture autoregressive model with GARCH errors is introduced and applied to the U.S. short-term interest rate. According to the diagnostic tests developed in the paper and further informal checks the model is capable of capturing both of the typical characteristics of the short-term interest rate: volatility persistence and the dependence of volatility on the level of interest rate. The model also allows for regime switches whose presence has been a third central result emerging from the recent empirical literature on the U.S. short-term interest rate. Realizations generated from the estimated model seem stable and their properties resemble those of the observed series closely. The drift and diffusion functions implied by the new model are in accordance with the results in much of the literature on continuous-time diffusion models for the short-term interest rate, and the term structure implications agree with historically observed patterns.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 with number PO5.
Date of creation: 04 Jan 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-125.
- Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Modeling the US short-term interest rate by mixture autoregressive processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,76, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Lanne , Markku, 2002.
"Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation,"
Research Discussion Papers
21/2002, Bank of Finland.
- Mandler, Martin, 2007. "The Taylor rule and interest rate uncertainty in the U.S. 1955-2006," MPRA Paper 2340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tom Pak-wing Fong & Chun-shan Wong, 2008. "Stress Testing Banks' Credit Risk Using Mixture Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 0813, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2006.
"Regime switching GARCH models,"
Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques)
2006006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Cahiers de recherche 06-08, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
- BAUWENS, Luc & PREMINGER, Arie & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2006011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Mizrach, Bruce, 2005.
"Assessing central bank credibility during the EMS crises: Comparing option and spot market-based forecasts,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2005/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Mizrach, Bruce, 2006. "Assessing central bank credibility during the ERM crises: Comparing option and spot market-based forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 28-54, April.
- Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "Assessing Central Bank Credibility During the EMS Crises: Comparing Option and Spot Market-Based Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 200424, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mohamed Saidane & Christian Lavergne, 2009. "Optimal Prediction with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Analysed Hidden Markov Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 323-364, November.
- Carvalho, Alexandre & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2005. "Ergodicity and existence of moments for local mixtures of linear autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 313-322, March.
- Lanne, Markku & Ahoniemi, Katja, 2008. "Implied Volatility with Time-Varying Regime Probabilities," MPRA Paper 23721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giannikis, D. & Vrontos, I.D. & Dellaportas, P., 2008. "Modelling nonlinearities and heavy tails via threshold normal mixture GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1549-1571, January.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 2005. "Stability results for nonlinear error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 69-81, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.