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Regime switching GARCH models

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Author Info
Luc, BAUWENS (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))
Arie, PREMINGER (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))
Jeroen, ROMBOUTS

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Abstract

We develop univariate regime-switching GARCH (RS-GARCH) models wherein the conditional variance switches in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a time-varying probability, specified as a function of past information. We provide sufficient conditions for stationarity and existence of moments. Because of path dependence, maximum likehood estimation is infeasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling algorithm is feasible. We apply this model using the NASDAQ daily returns series.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper with number 2006006.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 20 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006006

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Related research
Keywords: GARCH regime switching Bayesian inference

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. L. Bauwens & C.S. Bos & H.K. van Dijk, 1999. "Adaptive Polar Sampling with an application to a Bayes measure of Value-at-Risk," Econometric Institute Report 167, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 96-125.
    Other versions:
  3. Luc Bauwens & Charles S. Bos & Herman K. van Dijk & Rutger D. van Oest, 2002. "Adaptive Polar Sampling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 307, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Markus Haas, 2004. "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 211-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-60, July.
  7. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
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  10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Klaassen, F., 1998. "Improving garch volatility forecasts," Discussion Paper 52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chris Brooks, 2005. "Autoregressive Conditional Kurtosis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 399-421. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kai-Li Wang & Christopher Fawson & Christopher B. Barrett & James B. McDonald, 2001. "A flexible parametric GARCH model with an application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 521-536. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Thomas Mikosch & Cătălin Stărică, 2004. "Nonstationarities in Financial Time Series, the Long-Range Dependence, and the IGARCH Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 378-390, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Luc, Bauwens & J.V.K., ROMBOUTS, 2005. "Bayesian inference for the mixed conditional heteroskedasticity model," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2005058, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2007. "Robustness of the Risk-Return Relationship in the U.S. Stock Market," MPRA Paper 3879, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Luc, BAUWENS & G., STORTI, 2007. "A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007012, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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