The Taylor rule and interest rate uncertainty in the U.S. 1955-2006
AbstractWe use a Taylor rule with time-varying policy coefficients in combination with an unobserved components model for the output gap to estimate the uncertainty about future values of the Federal Funds Rate. The model makes it possible to separate ex-ante interest rate uncertainty into three components: 1) uncertainty about the Fed's future policy coefficients, 2) uncertainty about future economic fundamentals, and 3) residual uncertainty. The results show important changes in uncertainty about future short-term interest rates over time with peaks in the late 1960s/early 1970s, mid 1970s and late 1970s/early 1980s. While for one-quarter forecasts uncertainty about the Fed's policy reaction is more important than uncertainty about economic fundamentals this result is reversed for the two-quarter forecast horizon. Results from a modified model with regime shifts in the variance of the policy shocks confirm the previous findings but show changes in residual uncertainty to be important as well.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2340.
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
monetary policy rules; interest rate uncertainty; Kalman filter;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2007-03-31 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-03-31 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-03-31 (Monetary Economics)
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