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Testing the Fisher effect in the presence of structural change: A case study of the UK, 1966-2007

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  • O Bajo-Rubio
  • C Diaz-Roldan
  • V Esteve

Abstract

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the Fisher effect using cointegration techniques, where the existence of instabilities in the cointegrating or long-run relationship is explicitly tested. The analysis is applied to the UK, a country that has been subject to potentially strong regime shifts, for the period 1966-2007. To this end, we apply some recent econometric techniques aimed to detect eventual structural changes, allowing the instability to occur at an unknown date.

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Article provided by Economic Issues in its journal Economic Issues.

Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 1-16

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Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:210bajo

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  2. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
  9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  10. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  11. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan & Vicente Esteve, 2005. "Is the Fisher effect non-linear? some evidence for Spain, 1963-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 849-854.
  12. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Leãn-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, 03.
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  16. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
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Cited by:
  1. H.a. Mitchell-innes & M.j. Aziakpono & A.p. Faure, 2007. "Inflation Targeting And The Fisher Effect In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 693-707, December.
  2. Muse, Bernard & Alimi, R. Santos, 2012. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 44987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Awomuse, Bernard O. & Alimi, Santos R., 2012. "The Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: New Evidence and Implication for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 49684, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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