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A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation

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Author Info
Aksoy, Yunus
Orphanides, Athanasios
Small, David
Wieland, Volker
Wilcox, David

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Abstract

This Paper explores the quantitative implications of an approach to monetary policy that gained prominence in the United States during the 1990s. Proponents of this approach recommend that, when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the central bank should not move immediately to fight inflation, but rather wait for exogenous circumstances — such as favourable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions — to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While waiting for such circumstances the central bank should counteract any incipient increases in inflation. This approach has come to be known as ‘the opportunistic approach to disinflation’. The implied policy rule is non-linear and path-dependent. This Paper compares the behaviour of inflation and output under opportunistic and conventional linear policy. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale rational expectations model, we study the cost and time required to achieve a given disinflation, as well as the stochastic steady-state distributions of inflation and output under opportunistic versus linear policy rules.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4073.

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Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4073

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Related research
Keywords: disinflation; inflation targeting; interest rates; monetary policy; policy rules;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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