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Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy

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  • John B. Taylor
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

This paper focuses on simple rules for monetary policy which central banks have used in various ways to guide their interest rate decisions. Such rules, which can be evaluated using simulation and optimization techniques, were first derived from research on empirical monetary models with rational expectations and sticky prices built in the 1970s and 1980s. During the past two decades substantial progress has been made in establishing that such rules are robust. They perform well with a variety of newer and more rigorous models and policy evaluation methods. Simple rules are also frequently more robust than fully optimal rules. Important progress has also been made in understanding how to adjust simple rules to deal with measurement error and expectations. Moreover, historical experience has shown that simple rules can work well in the real world in that macroeconomic performance has been better when central bank decisions were described by such rules. The recent financial crisis has not changed these conclusions, but it has stimulated important research on how policy rules should deal with asset bubbles and the zero bound on interest rates. Going forward the crisis has drawn attention to the importance of research on international monetary issues and on the implications of discretionary deviations from policy rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15908.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15908

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Janet Yellen Gives First Speech On Monetary Policy As Fed Chair
    by Matthew Boesler in Business Insider on 2014-04-16 16:25:00
  2. Yellen: Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery
    by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2014-04-16 10:08:01
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Cited by:
  1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
  2. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides, 2010. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," Working Papers 2010-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 154, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Cross-Checking Optimal Monetary Policy with Information from the Taylor Rule," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201132, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  6. Singh, Ajay Pratap & Nikolaou, Michael, 2013. "Optimal rules for central bank interest rates subject to zero lower bound," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Dellas, H. & Diba, B. & Loisel, O., 2010. "Financial Shocks and Optimal Policy," Working papers 277, Banque de France.
  8. John B. Taylor, 2011. "Legislating a Rule for Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 31(3), pages 407-415, Fall.
  9. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2008. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0816, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  10. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  11. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 1116, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  12. Nils Jannsen & Melanie Klein, 2011. "The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  13. Mauricio Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2011. "El sistema crediticio, la política monetaria y un posible origen de ciclos y crisis financieras," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  14. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, 07.

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