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The Fisher Effect and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Tests of Cointegration

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Author Info
Wallace, Myles S
Warner, John T

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Abstract

The literature on the Fisher effect has ignored the potential relationship between inflation and long-term interest rates. Using an expectations model of the term structure of interest rates, the authors establish the conditions under which innovations in short-term inflation will be transmitted to long-term as well as short-term interest rates. Cointegration tests find support for both the Fisher effect and the expectations theory of the term structure. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 75 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 320-24
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:2:p:320-24

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  1. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. K. Hubrich, . "System estimation of the German money demand - a long-run analysis," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-77, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  3. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated," IMF Working Papers 07/141, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. A. Arize & J. Malindretos & Z. Obi, 2002. "Long- and short-term interest rates in 19 countries: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 105-120, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Kiseok Nam, 2005. "Inflation and Structural Change in 50 Developing Countries," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 461-471, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jens Weidmann, 1997. "New Hope for the Fisher Effect? A Re-Examination Using Threshold Cointegration," Macroeconomics 9705005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Are investors rational in international bond markets?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 169-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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