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Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing

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Author Info
Valerie A. Ramey

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Abstract

Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show a rise in these variables, whereas the Ramey-Shapiro narrative identification approach finds a fall. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR shocks, implying that the VAR shocks are missing the timing of the news. Simulations from a standard neoclassical model in which government spending is anticipated by several quarters demonstrate that VARs estimated with faulty timing can produce a rise in consumption even when it decreases in the model. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I construct two new variables that measure anticipations. The first is based on narrative evidence that is much richer than the Ramey-Shapiro military dates and covers 1939 to 2008. The second is from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and covers the period 1969 to 2008. All news measures suggest that most components of consumption fall after a positive shock to government spending. The implied government spending multipliers range from 0.6 to 1.1.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15464.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15464

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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  1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast: The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 13548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James Feyrer & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2009. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 07-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2008. "A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-132. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pereira, Manuel C, 2008. "Empirical evidence on the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in the US," MPRA Paper 17474, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2009. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility," Staff Report 387, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Agustín S. Bénétrix, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and Real Wages," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp288, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Agustin S. Benetrix, IIIS, Trinity College Dublin. Philip R. Lane, IIIS, Trinity College Dublin, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp294, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christopher Reicher, 2009. "Fiscal Taylor Rules in the Postwar United States," Kiel Working Papers 1509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  12. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/23, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Lone E. Christiansen, 2008. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data," IMF Working Papers 08/24, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Blanchard, Olivier J & Cottarelli, Carlo & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Symansky, Steven, 2009. "Fiscal Policy for the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 26-32, 07. [Downloadable!]
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