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The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior

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  • Lai, Kon S.
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 140-155

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:1:p:140-155

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    References

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    1. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    2. Kon Lai, 1997. "Is the real interest rate unstable? Some new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 359-364.
    3. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    4. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-19, August.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
    8. René Garcia & Pierre Perron, 1995. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-05, CIRANO.
    9. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 2000. "A note on nonstationarity, structural breaks, and the Fisher effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 695-707, May.
    11. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    12. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 1999. "On the Fisher effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 105-130, August.
    13. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    14. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    15. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1998. "Testing for a Shift in Mean without Having to Estimate Serial-Correlation Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 73-80, January.
    17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    18. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
    20. Atkins, Frank J. & Coe, Patrick J., 2002. "An ARDL bounds test of the long-run Fisher effect in the United States and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 255-266, June.
    21. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1995. "Nonstationarity of Regressors and Tests on Real-Interest-Rate Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 47-51, January.
    22. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Lai, Kon S, 1997. "Long-Term Persistence in the Real Interest Rate: Some Evidence of a Fractional Unit Root," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 225-35, July.
    24. Markku Lanne, 2001. "Near unit root and the relationship between inflation and interest rates: A reexamination of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 357-366.
    25. Jeung-Lak Lee & Carolyn Clark & Sung Ahn, 1998. "Long- and short-run Fisher effects: new tests and new results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 113-124.
    26. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2000. "Long memory story of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 325-330, June.
    27. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.
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    Cited by:
    1. Alfred Haug, 2012. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Working Papers 65, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Chang, Chih Kai, 2012. "Mean Reversion of Real Interest Rates in G-20: Panel Kss Test by Spsm with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 58-68, September.
    4. Robinson Kruse & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Antonio E. Noriega, 2013. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2013-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    5. G. Everaert, 2012. "A Panel Analysis of the Fisher Effect with an Unobserved I(1) World Real Interest Rate," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/782, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. C C Tsong & A Hachicha, 2014. "Revisiting the Fisher Hypothesis for Several Selected Developing Economies: a Quantile Cointegration Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 57-72, March.
    7. Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2011. "Mean-reversion in international real interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1959-1966, July.
    8. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, March.

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