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Is the real interest rate unstable? Some new evidence

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  • Kon Lai

Abstract

Prior studies typically report that real Treasury bill returns have a unit root. The unit-root findings are not consistent with the long-run Fisher effect and consumptionbased asset pricing models. This study examines a data set of ex ante real returns on US Treasury bills and commercial papers. The statistical analysis employs a new modified Dickey-Fuller test, whc has better power than standard unit-root tests. In contrast to previous findings, strong evidence of stationarity is found for all the real return series under examination. Implications of the results are discussed.

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  • Kon Lai, 1997. "Is the real interest rate unstable? Some new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 359-364.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:3:p:359-364
    DOI: 10.1080/000368497327137
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    Cited by:

    1. Tai-Hu Ling, & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Syed Azizi Wafa Syed Khalid Wafa, 2007. "Real Interest Rates Equalization: The Case of Malaysia and Singapore," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 24-37, August.
    2. C C Tsong & A Hachicha, 2014. "Revisiting the Fisher Hypothesis for Several Selected Developing Economies: a Quantile Cointegration Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 57-72, March.
    3. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.
    4. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Frank Smets, 1997. "Why does the yield curve predict economic activity? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States," BIS Working Papers 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Andrew Phiri & Lutho Mbekeni, 2021. "Fisher’s hypothesis, survey-based expectations and asymmetric adjustments: Empirical evidence from South Africa," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 825-846, October.
    6. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.

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