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Mean Reversion of Real Interest Rates in G-20: Panel Kss Test by Spsm with a Fourier Function

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  • Chang, Chih Kai

    ()
    (Department of Risk Management and Insurance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan.)

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    Abstract

    This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) to test the mean reversion properties in the real interest rates for the G-20 countries. SPSM classifies the whole panel into a group of stationary countries and a group of non-stationary countries. In doing so, we can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results from the SPSM using the Panel KSS test with a Fourier function indicate that the mean reversion holds true for all G-20 countries. Our results have important policy implications for the G-20 countries under study.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 58-68

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:3:p:58-68

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    Related research

    Keywords: Mean Reversion; Real Interest Rate; Sequential Panel Selection Method; G-10 Countries;

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    1. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    2. Pascalau, Razvan, 2008. "Unit Roots Tests with Smooth Breaks: An Application to the Nelson-Plosser Data Set," MPRA Paper 7220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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    7. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
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    9. David E. Rapach & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "The persistence in international real interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 339-346.
    10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
    11. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    13. Junsoo Lee & Walter Enders, 2004. "Testing for a unit-root with a nonlinear Fourier function," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 457, Econometric Society.
    14. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
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