Revisiting the sustainability of current account deficit: SPSM using the panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function
AbstractThis study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) to test the mean reversion properties in the current account balance as percentages of GDP for the ten OECD countries (Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States) over the span of 1981Q1– 2010Q4. SPSM classifies the whole panel into a group of stationary countries and a group of non-stationary countries. In doing so, we can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Our empirical results indicate that the mean reversion holds true for most of the OECD countries, with the exception of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our results have important economic implications for the ten OECD countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Current Account Balance; Fourier function; OECD Countries; Panel KSS Test; Sequential Panel Selection Method; Stationarity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009.
"Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
- Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Working Papers 629, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Working Papers 517, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
- Hamizun Ismail & Ahmad Baharumshah, 2008. "Malaysia’s current account deficits: an intertemporal optimization perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 569-590, November.
- Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, 09.
- MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors,"
Cahiers de recherche
2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
- Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Chang, Tsangyao & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Young, 2007. "Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 485-492.
- Ucar, Nuri & Omay, Tolga, 2009. "Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 5-8, July.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2002.
"On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries,"
0062, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
- Lau, Evan & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Haw, Chan Tze, 2006. "Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 90-107, January.
- Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2006.
"International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root,"
855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2006. "International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Unit Root," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(1), pages 44-49.
- Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Nicholas Tabakis, 2000. "Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 599-603.
- Lau, Evan & Zubaidi Baharumshah, Ahmad, 2005. "Mean-reverting behavior of current account in Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 367-371, June.
- Pascalau, Razvan, 2008.
"Unit Roots Tests with Smooth Breaks: An Application to the Nelson-Plosser Data Set,"
7220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Razvan Pascalau, 2010. "Unit root tests with smooth breaks: an application to the Nelson-Plosser data set," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 565-570.
- Ludlow, Jorge & Enders, Walter, 2000. "Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-347.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.