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Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries

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  • Jyh-lin, Wu
  • Fountas, Stilianos
  • Show-lin, Chen

Abstract

TThe objective of this paper is to test for the sustainability of the current account deficits in the U.S. and Canada over the 1973--1994 period. Using various unit root and cointegration tests some of which allow for structural changes, we conclude that the real current account deficits-to-GDP ratios are not sustainable.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 52 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 193-198

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:52:y:1996:i:2:p:193-198

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  1. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  3. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
  4. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
  5. Tanner, Evan & Liu, Peter, 1994. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large"?: Some Further Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 511-18, July.
  6. Haug, A.A., 1993. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Papers 93-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  7. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
  8. Peter Liu & Evan Tanner, 1995. "Intertemporal solvency and breaks in the US deficit process: a maximum-likelihood cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 231-235.
  9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  10. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
  2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
  3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Xu-Zhao, 2014. "Is fiscal policy stationary in China? A regional study by local government," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 492-499.
  4. Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2006. "International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Unit Root," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(1), pages 44-49.
  5. Fengbao Yin & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "The Sustainability of Trade Balances in China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2090-2097.
  6. Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris & Simos, Theodore, 2011. "A new test for deficit sustainability and its application to US data," MPRA Paper 45393, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jan 2012.
  7. Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2005. "Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-237, April.
  8. Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2005. "Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach," MPRA Paper 1220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1474-1495.
  10. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
  11. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February.
  12. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
  13. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union," MPRA Paper 51244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2013.

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