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Intertemporal solvency of Turkey’s current account

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Author Info
Ayla Ogus () (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)
Niloufer Sohrabji () (Department of Economics, Simmons College)

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Abstract

We test for sustainability of Turkey’s current account position between 1992 and 2007 using the intertemporal solvency model of Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Husted (1992). This approach examines the relationship between exports and imports+ (which include imports, net interest and unilateral transfer payments). Cointegration between inflows and outflows implies that the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied. We use the Johansen and the Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration tests to determine linkages between exports and imports+ in Turkey. Using the Johansen test we find no cointegration and thus reject intertemporal solvency of the current account for this period. If we allow for a structural break in the cointegrating relation using the Gregory Hansen procedure we do find evidence of cointegration between the two series. This result can be used to estimate the long-run relationship between exports and imports+ using dynamic OLS and test for weak and strong sustainability of the current account position. We find evidence for weak sustainability but reject strong sustainability of the Turkish current account position in recent years.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Izmir University of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0805.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:0805

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Web page: http://eco.ieu.edu.tr
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Related research
Keywords: Current account sustainability; intertemporal budget constraint; Turkey; cointegration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Steven Cook, 2004. "Spurious rejection by cointegration tests incorporating structural change in the cointegrating relationship," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 879-884, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  6. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Su Zhou, 2001. "The Power of Cointegration Tests Versus Data Frequency and Time Spans," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 906-921, April.
  9. Kouretas, Georgios P & Zarangas, Leonidas P, 1998. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 261-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2005. "Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach," MPRA Paper 1220, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Apergis, Nicholas & Katrakilidis, Konstantinos P & Tabakis, Nicholas M, 2000. "Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 599-603, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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