Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels
AbstractRecent advances in testing for the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) focus on the time series properties of real exchange rates in panel frameworks. One weakness of such tests, however, is that they fail to inform the researcher as to which cross-section units are stationary. As a consequence, a reservation for PPP analyses based on such tests is that a small number of real exchange rates in a given panel may drive the results. In this paper we examine the PPP hypothesis focusing on the stationarity of the real exchange rates in up to 25 OECD countries. We introduce a methodology that when applied to a set of established panel-unit-root tests, allows to identify the real exchange rates that are stationary and poolable without trading-off any test power. We apply procedures that account for cross-sectional dependence. Our results reveal evidence of mean-reversion that is significantly stronger as compared to those obtained by the existing literature, strengthening the case for PPP. Moreover, our approach allows to provide half-lives estimates for the mean-reverting real exchange rates and so find that the half-lives are shorter than the literature consensus and therefore that the PPP puzzle is less pronounced than initially thought.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 517.
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Note: A revised version is available as Working Paper 629.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: London E1 4NS
Phone: +44 (0) 20 7882 5096
Fax: +44 (0) 20 8983 3580
Web page: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
PPP; Real exchange rates; Half-lives; Panel unit root tests;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-08-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-08-09 (Econometrics)
- NEP-IFN-2004-08-09 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yoosoon Chang, 2000.
"Nonlinear IV Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency,"
CIRJE-F-85, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
- Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Working Papers 2000-08, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 1996. "Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 7-11, January.
- Jean-Christian Lambelet & Alexander Mihailov, 2006.
"The Triple-Parity Law,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
33, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chih-kai Chang & Tsangyao Chang, 2012. "Revisiting the sustainability of current account deficit: SPSM using the panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 538-550.
- Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nick Vriend).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.