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Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior?

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  • Lau, Evan
  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
  • Haw, Chan Tze

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 90-107

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:18:y:2006:i:1:p:90-107

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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References

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  1. Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "Forward premiums and market efficiency: Panel unit-root evidence from the term structure of forward premiums," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 109-122, March.
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  3. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
  5. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
  6. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  8. Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  10. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Hal Hill & Prema-chandra Athukorala, 1998. "Foreign Investment in East Asia: A Survey," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 12(2), pages 23-50, November.
  12. Venus Khim-sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Terence Tai-leung Chong, 2003. "Are Asian Real Exchange Rates Stationary?," International Finance 0307002, EconWPA, revised 01 Nov 2004.
  13. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  14. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  16. Fountas Stilianos & Wu Jyh-Lin, 1999. "Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 51-58.
  17. Assaf Razin, 1995. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Jonathan David Ostry, 1997. "Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries - Are they a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 97/51, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
  20. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-21, November.
  21. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "New Evidence on Real Exchange Rate Stationarity and Purchasing Power Parity in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 601-614, October.
  22. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2001. "Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 477-487, July.
  24. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  25. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
  26. Karlsson, Sune & Lothgren, Mickael, 2000. "On the power and interpretation of panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 249-255, March.
  27. Jill A. Holman, 2001. "Is the large U.S. current account deficit sustainable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-23.
  28. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February.
  29. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug..
  30. Wu, Jhy-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. " Mean Reversion of Interest Rates in the Eurocurrency Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 459-73, September.
  31. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Chang, Tsangyao & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Young, 2007. "Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 485-492.
  2. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
  3. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1474-1495.
  4. Bilgili, Faik, 2010. "Energy tax harmonization in EU: Time series and panel data evidence," MPRA Paper 24013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Lanzafame, Matteo, 2012. "Current account sustainability in advanced economies," MPRA Paper 42384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2013. "Long memory and regime switching properties of current account deficits in the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-87.
  7. Juncal Cunado & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "New Evidence on US Current Account Sustainability," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, April.
  8. Chih-kai Chang & Tsangyao Chang, 2012. "Revisiting the sustainability of current account deficit: SPSM using the panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 538-550.
  9. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Long swings in Japan’s current account and in the yen," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/08, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  10. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
  11. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Hamizun Bin Ismail, 2012. "The present value model and Thailand's current account balance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 337-355, December.
  12. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 497-515, August.
  13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.

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