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Testing for a Shift in Mean without Having to Estimate Serial-Correlation Parameters

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  • Vogelsang, Timothy J

Abstract

Tests for detecting a shift in the mean of univariate time series that do not require estimation of serial-correlation parameters are proposed. The statistics are valid whether the errors are stationary or have a unit root. The date of the shift may be known or unknown. The statics are based on a simple transformation of the data and are functions of partial sums of the data. These so-called partial sum statistics are shown to be asymptotically invariant to serial-correlation parameters. The statistics are shown to have good size and power properties asymptotically and in finite samples.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 16 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 73-80

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:16:y:1998:i:1:p:73-80

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Cited by:
  1. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  2. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008. "A Powerful Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based on a Tuning Parameter Free Statistic," Working Papers 1185, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Nielsen, Morten, 2008. "A Powerful Tuning Parameter Free Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis," Working Papers 08-05, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  4. Crainiceanu, Ciprian & Vogelsang, Timothy, 2001. "Spectral Density Bandwidth Choice: Source of Nonmonotonic Power for Tests of a Mean Shift in a Time Series," Working Papers 01-14, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  5. O'Reilly, Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Working Paper Series 0335, European Central Bank.
  6. Robert Taylor & Stephen Leybourne & David Harvey, 2004. "Modified Tests for a Change in Persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 64, Econometric Society.
  7. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, . "Break date estimation for models with deterministic structural change," Discussion Papers 13/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  8. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-519, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  9. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
  10. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2009. "Nonparametric Cointegration Analysis of Fractional Systems With Unknown Integration Orders," CREATES Research Papers 2009-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  11. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
  12. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
  13. Jushan Bai & Josep Llu�s Carrion-I-Silvestre, 2009. "Structural Changes, Common Stochastic Trends, and Unit Roots in Panel Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 471-501.

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