This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Policy-Induced Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Zisimos Koustas () (Department of Economics, Brock University)
Jean-Francois Lamarche () (Department of Economics, Brock University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper utilizes tests for a unit root that have power against nonlinear alternatives to provide empirical evidence on the time series properties of the ex-post real interest rate in the G7 countries. We find that the unit-root hypothesis can be rejected in the presence of a nonlinear alternative motivated by theoretical literature on optimal monetary policy rules. This represents a reversal of the results obtained using standard linear unit-root and cointegration tests. Tests for linearity reject this hypothesis for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the US. For these countries we estimate nonlinear models to capture the dynamics of the ex-post real interest rate.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://coffee.econ.brocku.ca/RePec/pdf/0503.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, July 2005
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Brock University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0503.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision: Jul 2005
Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0503

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 500 Glenridge Avenue, St. Catharines, Ontario, L2S 3A1
Phone: (905) 688-5550 3325
Fax: (905) 988-9388
Email:
Web page: http://www.brocku.ca/economics/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jean-Francois Lamarche).

Related research
Keywords: Fisher Effect; Unit Roots; Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregression;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Drazen, Allan, 1981. "Inflation and capital accumulation under a finite horizon," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 247-260. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Weber, Axel A, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Koustas, Z., Serletis, A., 1998. "On the Fisher Effect," Papers 98-09, Calgary - Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  12. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Weber, Axel, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7-Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," Discussion Paper Serie B 281, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jun 1994.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Romer, David, 1986. "A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 663-85, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Koustas, Zisimos, 1998. "Canadian Evidence on Long-Run Neutrality Propositions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 397-411, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
    Other versions:
  19. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77. [Downloadable!]
  20. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models," Working Papers 465, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  24. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1993. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
  27. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Weiss, Laurence M, 1980. "The Effects of Money Supply on Economic Welfare in the Steady State," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 565-76, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Bec, Frederique & Guay, Alain & Guerre, Emmanuel, 2008. "Adaptive consistent unit-root tests based on autoregressive threshold model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 94-133, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over five million full texts a year are downloaded through IDEAS.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-29.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.