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Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes

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  • Claude Lopez

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Abstract

This study investigates the stationary behavior of the inflation rates for the Euro- zone members and some neighboring countries, for the 1957:2 to 2007:3 period. The analysis uses univariate unit root tests with enhanced small-sample performances that allow up to two breaks in the intercept, namely those of Elliott et al. (1996) and Lopez (2008). The results strongly reject the unit root null hypothesis for all the countries. Furthermore, they demonstrate that some of the Euro-zone inflation rates are stationary and others are regime-wise stationary. While such results may reconcile some of the literature findings and provide empirical evidence that the Maastricht criterion is respected, they also highlight the importance of accounting for breaks when studying these series.

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Paper provided by University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics in its series University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series with number 2008-02.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision: 2008
Handle: RePEc:cin:ucecwp:2008-02

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  1. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  2. Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0342, Econometric Society.
  3. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  4. Chadha, Jagjit S & Dimsdale, Nicholas H, 1999. "A Long View of Real Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 17-45, Summer.
  5. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
  6. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
  7. Weber, Axel A. & Beck, Günter W., 2005. "Price stability, inflation convergence and diversity in EMU: Does one size fit all?," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. John H. Rogers & Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Erika Wada, 2001. "Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Paper Series WP01-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Lopez, Claude, 2009. "GLS-detrending and regime-wise stationarity testing in small samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 99-101, August.
  10. Burridge, Peter & Taylor, A M Robert, 2000. " On the Power of GLS-Type Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 633-45, December.
  11. Margarida Duarte, 2003. "The euro and inflation divergence in Europe," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-70.
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  13. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R., 2004. "Exchange Rates and Inflation Under EMU: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 4583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2004. "European product market integration after the euro," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 347-384, 07.
  16. Riemer P. Faber & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2005. "Price Convergence in Europe from a Macro Perspective: Product Categories and Reliability," DNB Working Papers 034, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Claude Lopez & Javier Reyes, 2009. "Stationary properties of the real interest rate and the per-capita consumption growth rate: empirical evidence for theoretical arguments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1643-1651.
  2. Claude Lopez, 2008. "Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2008-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics, revised 2008.
  3. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David, 2010. "Testing for Group-Wise Convergence with an Application to Euro Area Inflation," MPRA Paper 20585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French PropertyLiability Insurance Industry - New Findings over the Recent Period," Working Papers 2014-047, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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