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Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages

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  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Barkoulas, John

Abstract

A number of previous studies have questioned the dominant role of Germany within the European Monetary System (EMS). These conclusions are often based on empirical findings that the interest rates of EMS member countries are not affected by German interest rates, even in the long run. In this study, we demonstrate that intra-EMS interest rate differentials (vis-a-vis Germany) exhibit mean-reverting behavior characterized by long-memory dynamics. In a system incorporating six EMS countries and one non-EMS country (the U.S.A.), estimates from a fractional error correction model suggest the presence of short-run intra-EMS monetary-policy interdependencies but validate the German Dominance Hypothesis in the long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 469-482

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:469-482

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/30, European University Institute.
  2. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2013. "Testing for a Break in the Persistence in Yield Spreads of EMU Government Bonds," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-517, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2009. "Benchmark bonds interactions under regime shifts," Working Papers 103, Bank of Greece.
  4. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  5. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," CREATES Research Papers 2009-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Mete Feridun, 2006. "An Investigation of the German Dominance Hypothesis in the Context of Eastern Enlargement of the EU," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(2), pages 172-182.
  7. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley & Andrew Wood, 2004. "A new interpretation of the real exchange rate - yield differential nexus," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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