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Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974–1998

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  • Clemens Kool

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  • Alex Lammertsma

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence in Europe. We introduce the lagged level of the real exchange rate as an appropriate indicator of exchange rate accommodation. We correspondingly estimate a non-linear autoregressive inflation equation for ten European countries (excluding Germany) for the period 1974:1–1998:2. In the estimation procedure we allow for the presence of an unknown number of shifts in the mean of inflation. Overall, our results provide modest support for the existence of the theoretically hypothesized link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-005-5332-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 16 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 51-76

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:16:y:2005:i:1:p:51-76

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: inflation persistence; exchange rate accommodation; endogenous structural breaks; monetary policy;

References

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  1. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Alex Lammertsma & Clemens J. M. Kool, 2000. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 312-315, March.
  4. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
  5. Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J. M., 1992. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 925-943, May.
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  7. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  8. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1992. "Monetary Accommodation, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 461-80, May.
  9. Paul Grauwe, 1990. "The cost of disinflation and the European Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 147-173, June.
  10. Herz, Bernhard & Roger, Werner, 1992. "The EMS is a greater Deutschmark area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1413-1425, October.
  11. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. M. F. Bleaney, 1999. "Price and Monetary Dynamics Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 99/67, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Merih Uctum, 1996. "European integration and asymmetry in the EMS," Research Paper 9605, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Burdekin, R.C.K. & Siklos, P.L., 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Shfts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?," Working Papers 97-2, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  15. Bean, Charles R, 1987. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  18. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  19. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
  20. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  21. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  22. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-65, February.
  23. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
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  25. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1992. "German dominance in the EMS:The empirical evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 127-128, February.
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