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Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance

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  • Bean, Charles R

Abstract

In the first part of this paper I use a small macroeconomic model to examine the causes of the appreciation of sterling during 1979-81. Oil takes about half of the blame. Contractionary monetary policies alone do not seem sufficient to explain the rest, but when coupled with adverse supply-side developments they seem capable of explaining both the appreciation and the associated increase in unemployment. In the second part of the paper I examine the possibility that temporary fluctuations in the real exchange rate may have a permanent effect on British export performance. Using data from 1900 to the present I find evidence that is consistent with "hysteresis" effects on both the demand and supply side of the export market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 177.

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Date of creation: May 1987
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:177

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Keywords: Exchange Rates; Exports; Hysteresis; Monetary Policy; Oil Exports; United Kingdom;

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Cited by:
  1. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gottfries, Nils, 2002. "Market Shares, Financial Constraints and Pricing Behaviour in the Export Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(276), pages 583-607, November.
  3. Park, Mi-Hee & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Recent Development in Infrastructure and Its Impact on Agricultural and Non-agricultural Trade," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19525, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-85, September.
  5. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tervala, Juha, 2013. "Learning by devaluating: A supply-side effect of competitive devaluation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 275-290.
  7. C.J.M. Kool & A. Lammertsma, 2004. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes:The European Evidence 1974-1998," Working Papers 04-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
  8. Clemens Kool & Alex Lammertsma, 2005. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974–1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, January.

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