Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance
AbstractIn the first part of this paper I use a small macroeconomic model to examine the causes of the appreciation of sterling during 1979-81. Oil takes about half of the blame. Contractionary monetary policies alone do not seem sufficient to explain the rest, but when coupled with adverse supply-side developments they seem capable of explaining both the appreciation and the associated increase in unemployment. In the second part of the paper I examine the possibility that temporary fluctuations in the real exchange rate may have a permanent effect on British export performance. Using data from 1900 to the present I find evidence that is consistent with "hysteresis" effects on both the demand and supply side of the export market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 177.
Date of creation: May 1987
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Other versions of this item:
- Charles Bean, 1988. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates, pages 39-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Clemens J.M. Kool & Alex Lammertsma, 2003. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974-1998," Working Papers 04-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
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- Gottfries, Nils, 1999. "Markets Shares, Financial Constraints, and Pricing Behavior in the Export Market," Working Paper Series 1999:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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