Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter: A conceptual framework for policy analysis
AbstractIncreased global demand for energy and other resources, particularly from the rapidly developing economies of China and India and the opening up of global resource markets to global investors and speculative activity, has resulted in considerable recent turbulence in resource prices. The recent magnitude of change in resource prices, both positive and negative, and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance to both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy, such as that of Australia, the recent resource price boom has resulted in: increased government taxation revenue, increased employment and wages in the resource and resource related sectors, increased spending in the domestic economy that contributed to buoyant economic growth, increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and contributed to a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments have had adverse effects on the non-resource sector by: subjecting it to more intense competition for limited resources, contributing to a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports arising from a stronger exchange rate, reducing employment in the relatively more labour intensive non-resource sector, and contributing to an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects, and the overall impact of a resource price boom, require a fundamentally closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be pivotal in determining the overall macroeconomic outcomes from a resource price boom. The aim of this paper is to develop a generic analytical framework to appraise economic outcomes in the wake of a resource price boom for a resource producing and exporting economy. To this end a dynamic long run macroeconomic model is developed, emphasising the important role and contribution of government fiscal policy in influencing subsequent macroeconomic outcomes. The adjustment process in the model arising from a resource price shock emphasises a spending (or wealth) effect, an income effect, a revenue effect, a current account effect and an exchange rate effect, which facilitate a robust analysis of subsequent macroeconomic outcomes from such a shock as well as related policy responses.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Resource price shock Dynamic macroeconomic model Simulation analysis Macroeconomic adjustment Policy analysis;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
- David Aschauer, 1988.
"Is public expenditure productive?,"
88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Willem H. Buiter & Douglas D. Purvis, 1980.
"Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitiveness: A Model of the "Dutch Disease","
NBER Working Papers
0592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buiter, William H & Purvis, Douglas D, 1980. "Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitiveness : A Model of the "Dutch Disease"," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 185, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Harvie, Charles & Van Hoa, Tran, 1994. "Terms of trade shocks and macroeconomic adjustment in a resource exporting economy : The case of Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 101-112, June.
- Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June.
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
- David Aschauer, 1988.
"Does public capital crowd out private capital?,"
88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Harvie, Charles, 1991. "Temporary Oil Production and Macroeconomic Adjustment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(57), pages 241-63, December.
- Harvie, Charles & Thaha, Atifah, 1994. "Oil production and macroeconomic adjustment in the Indonesian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 253-270, October.
- Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
- Ali, Issa & Harvie, Charles, 2013. "Oil and economic development: Libya in the post-Gaddafi era," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 273-285.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.