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Unpuzzling the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle

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  • Matteo Pelagatti
  • Emilio Colombo

    ()

Abstract

The empirical validation of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory is generally based on real exchange rates built using consumer price indexes (CPI). The empirical evidence does not generally support the theory and this fact goes under the name of purchasing power parity puzzle. In this paper we show by theoretical arguments that, even if the law of one price holds for all the goods traded in two countries, real exchange rates based on CPI are not mean-reverting and therefore statistical tests based on them should reject the PPP hypothesis. We prove that such real exchange rates are neither stationary nor integrated, and so both unit-root and stationarity tests should reject the null according to their power properties. The performance of the most common unit-root and stationarity tests in situations in which the law of one price holds is studied by means of a simulation experiment, based on real European CPI weights and price behaviours.

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File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper221.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 221.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision: Mar 2012
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:221

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Keywords: Purchasing power parity; Law of one price; Stationarity; Unit root.;

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  1. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2004. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2004-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Non-Linear Dynamics in Deviations from the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 3377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Mario J. Crucini & Chris I. Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, 2005. "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 724-738, June.
  5. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-data," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000311, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Ullah, Aman, 2004. "Finite Sample Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 1, number 9780198774488.
  7. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and the PPP Puzzle," Macroeconomics 0310009, EconWPA.
  8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  9. Elliott, Graham & Pesavento, Elena, 2006. "On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1405-1430, September.
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