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Temporal Aggregation and Purchasing Power Parity Persistence

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  • Yamin Ahmad

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater)

  • William D. Craighead

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)

Abstract

This paper uses a unique new monthly US-UK real exchange rate series for the January 1794 – December 2009 period to reexamine the academic debate over purchasing power parity (PPP). The consensus view described by Rogoff (1996) is that PPP holds in the long-run, but short run deviations are very persistent, with half-lives ranging from 3-5 years. Most of the literature using long time series relies on the annual data developed by Lee (1976) and Lothian and Taylor (1996), which were both constructed from underlying higher-frequency data sources. Estimates of purchasing power parity persistence using these series may therefore be subject to temporal aggregation bias. We find evidence of aggregation bias which indicates the half-life of PPP deviations has been overestimated in much of the previous literature. We also find that estimates of the half-lives under temporal aggregation are further reduced once we account for the Harrod (1933)-Balassa (1964) - Samuelson (1964) effect. The result of aggregation bias appears to be robust even when considering the case that real exchange rates exhibit nonlinear dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wesleyan University, Department of Economics in its series Wesleyan Economics Working Papers with number 2011-001.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in the Journal of International Money and Finance, 30:5 (September 2011), 817-830
Handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2011-001

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Keywords: Temporal Aggregation; Real Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity; Exchange Rate Persistence; Half-Lives;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yamin Ahmad & Ming Chien Lo & Olena Mykhaylova, 2012. "Causes of Nonlinearities in low order models of the real exchange rate," Working Papers 12-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2013.
  2. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Simões, Oscar R. & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2012. "Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da Paridade do Poder de compra: Evidência a partir de dados brasileiros," Textos para discussão 310, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  4. William D. Craighead & Pao-Lin Tien, 2013. "Nominal Shocks and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Two Centuries," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  5. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
  6. Yamin Ahmad & Ivan Paya, 2014. "Temporal Aggregation of Random Walk Processes and Implications for Asset Prices," Working Papers 14-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
  7. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
  8. Ikeno, Hidehiro, 2014. "Pairwise tests of convergence of Japanese local price levels," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 232-248.

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