Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Volatility and Persistence of Simulated DSGE Real Exchange Rates

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yamin Ahmad

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater)

  • Ming Chien Lo

    ()
    (Department of Economics, St Cloud State University)

  • Olena Mykhaylova

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Richmond)

Abstract

We investigate the time series properties of both filtered and unfiltered real exchange rate series produced by DSGE models that feature local currency pricing, home bias, nontraded goods, and incomplete markets. Detrended series produced by several specifications approach the empirically observed volatility, although none of the models generate enough persistence. Conversely, several models produce unfiltered series that possess the same degree of persistence as the data, but none can match its volatility.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uww.edu/documents/colleges/cobe/economics/wpapers/11_01_Ahmad_Lo_Mykhaylova.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 11-01.

as in new window
Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision: Nov 2012
Publication status: Forthcoming in Economics Letters
Handle: RePEc:uww:wpaper:11-01

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Whitewater, WI 53190-1750
Phone: (414) 472-1361
Web page: http://www.uww.edu/cobe/economics/main.html
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Dynamics; Nonlinear Dynamics; DSGE Modeling; Smooth Transition Estimation; Simulations;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Yamin Ahmad & William Craighead, 2010. "Temporal Aggregation and Purchasing Power Parity Persistence," Working Papers 10-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
  2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  4. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  5. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764, October.
  6. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2008. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1363-1375, November.
  7. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "A Higher-Order Taylor Expansion Approach to Simulation of Stochastic Forward-Looking Models with an Application to a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 17(2-3), pages 125-39, June.
  8. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  9. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
  10. Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  11. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
  14. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
  15. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Pricing to Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," NBER Working Papers 7026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  18. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  19. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  21. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  22. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 721-750, 06.
  23. Charles Engel, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ahmad, Yamin S., 2008. "The effects of small sample bias in Threshold Autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 6-8, October.
  25. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
  26. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  27. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  28. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2006. "Openness and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  30. Tille, Cedric, 2001. "The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of monetary shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 421-444, April.
  31. Jon Steinsson, 2005. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," Economics wp28_jonst, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  32. Dias, Daniel & Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2005. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Working Paper Series 0450, European Central Bank.
  33. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  34. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  35. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  36. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  37. Yamin Ahmad & Stuart Glosser, 2011. "Searching for nonlinearities in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1829-1845.
  38. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  39. Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209.
  40. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  41. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2002. "Comment on: Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 941-946, July.
  42. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Volatility, Persistence and Nonlinearity of Simulated DSGE Real Exchange Rates
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-08-20 22:22:48

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uww:wpaper:11-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yamin Ahmad).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.