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Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?

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Author Info
Shiu-Sheng Chen
Charles Engel

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Abstract

Recently, Jean Imbs and colleagues have claimed that much of the purchasing power parity puzzle can be explained by 'aggregation bias'. This paper re-examines aggregation bias. It clarifies the meaning of aggregation bias and its applicability to the PPP puzzle; demonstrates that the size of the 'bias' is much smaller than suggested if explosive roots in the simulations are ruled out; and shows that the presence of non-persistent measurement error data can make price series appear less persistent than they are. After correcting for small-sample bias, half-life estimates indicate that heterogeneity and aggregation bias do not help to solve the PPP puzzle. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Pacific Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 49-72
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Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:1:p:49-72

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-data," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000311, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. repec:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:1 is not listed on IDEAS
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  6. Christian Murray & David Papell, 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 783-790, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Local-currency pricing and the choice of exchange-rate regime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1449-1472, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  11. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Working Papers 0616, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Balazs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp895, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2005. "How Puzzling is the PPP Puzzle? An Alternative Half-Life Measure of convergence to PPP," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 10614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Masao Ogaki & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule," Working Papers 09-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2008. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Staff Reports 351, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ferre De Graeve & Olivier De Jonghe & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2004. "The Determinants of Pass-Through of Market Conditions to Bank Retail Interest Rates in Belgium," Research series 200405-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  12. Berka, Martin, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristics of goods," MPRA Paper 8606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Christian J. Murray & Hatice Ozer-Balli & David H. Papell, 2006. "PPP Persistence within Sectoral Real Exchange Rate Panels," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 388-398 Izmir University of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2007. "Another Look at the Null of Stationary RealExchange Rates. Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," IREA Working Papers 200710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
  15. Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz & Rembert De Blander, 2009. "Price convergence in the European Union and in the New Member States," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 40(2), pages 37-59. [Downloadable!]
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